Catalonia has spoken. We just don’t know what it said.

Dr. Jaume Gelabert Director, Arcadia in Spain

Date

October 7, 2015
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On Sunday, September 27, Catalonia celebrated a very important election. Although nominally its purpose was to choose the next president of the Catalan Parliament, Catalonia and the rest of the country have seen it as a referendum on independence. Unlike what happened last September in Scotland, Catalonia has not been granted the opportunity to decide on its future. Instead, it had an unofficial, unauthorized referendum on November 9, where 2 million people voted and about 90% favored independence. As a result, President Artur Mas (of the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) joined forces with other parties, some of which had nothing to do with him ideologically (like ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia) to push for a legal binding referendum.

So what happened on September 27? The large picture remains the same: pro-independence politicians occupy the majority of seats in the Catalan parliament. There have been two major surges in votes: the extreme left wing (Popular Unity Candidacy, or CUP) and the moderate center-right (Ciutadans). For Artur Mas, the votes of CUP are vital to become president, while the anti-independence Ciutadans will try to exert more and more political influence in the Catalan political landscape.

The electoral system is such that pro-independence parties occupy the majority of the seats (62 of 135, plus the 10 of CUP, also pro-independence). However, this does not reflect that half of the total votes went to political parties against independence, due to a complicated system of voting representation. Both pro- and anti-independence media outlets have claimed victory. The pro-independence newspapers stated, on the morning of September 18, that the 'yes' had 'swept', while the anti- independence newspapers stated that the Catalan people wished to remain in Spain.

The coming weeks will be interesting, as complicated negotiations between the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (the party of Artur Mas) and the CUP (which will not support Mas as a president) are taking place. What will Artur Mas offer CUP in order to become president? What will a declaration of independence look like when two opposite parties are working together for a common goal? No doubt winter is coming (although we’re still wearing short sleeves!) and a Game of Seats is in the making!

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