Arcadia Scotland

On June 23^rd 2016, Scotland voted to remain in the European Union by 62% to 38% with every single region voting to remain. The United Kingdom voted to leave by 52% to 48%. It is almost inevitable that the UK will leave the European Union, but what precisely that leaving will entail both in terms of our relationship to Europe and the nature of the United Kingdom - is very much unclear. Markets abhor uncertainty so the pound has been dropping in value quickly which from a US perspective is good for UK exports including Education as these exports will now become cheaper and the dollar will go much further for US visitors to the UK - at least in the shorter term unless inflation will increase these costs.

From a Scottish perspective, it appears very much that the UK’s decision and the desire to negotiate with the European Union directly as we untangle the UK’s trade and other agreements with the European Union is not entirely in tune with what might be perceived to be both the democratic will of the Scottish people and primarily Scotland’s interests.  Scotland's First Minister has stated that a second independence referendum for Scotland is ‘highly likely’ as this was clearly stated in her party’s manifesto as a pledge to hold a second referendum were there to be a significant and material change in circumstances. There are not many that would argue that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union contrary to a significant majority of the Scottish people is not a significant and material change in circumstances for Scotland.

Perhaps most importantly there is currently a majority in the Scottish Parliament if one takes the SNP and the Green party together that are in favour of Scottish independence and a very strong majority in Scotland that is in favour of remaining a part of the European Union.  Even the Conservatives within the Scottish Parliament argue that the UK parliament should not block a second referendum were the Scottish Parliament to vote for this.

If one was to be in the Scottish Parliament over the next two years, these deep constitutional questions will once again be in play in the corridors of power. Across Scotland, the political animus that spread through the Scottish population from workplaces, pubs to schools during the first independence referendum in 2014 will once again be driving the Scottish political consciousness. A third way of Scotland remaining in both the UK and in the European Union does not at this stage look possible so if we are to take our First Minister at her word, it looks ‘highly likely’ that a second independence referendum will be the only resolution to this question.

So how will Scotland vote were there to be a second independence referendum? On Sept 18^th 2014 55% of Scotland voted No or ‘better together’ to remain with the rest of the UK and 45% voted Yes to Scottish independence.  Scotland’s largest city Glasgow voted Yes by a little over 53% while Edinburgh, Scotland’s capital, voted No by 61%. However, Edinburgh considers itself very much a European city of the enlightenment and voted by a staggering 74% to remain in the European Union.

So next time round which way will the somewhat anglo-centric city of Edinburgh decide to vote? Will it vote its European identity and the membership of European Union that independence could likely bring, or for its Britishness and sustained union with the United Kingdom?

One factor to determine the outcome of a potential second vote will be whether a union with Europe would be seen as the less risky option for the Scots over a vote for our current union as a part of the United Kingdom. The Scots were also told that we could not share the pound with England and the question as to currency remains unanswered - but where now the value of the pound? On the one hand, we have England as our largest current trading partner, but Europe would potentially be the much larger and more stable market. 

The recent collapse in the value of oil is without doubt problematic to those supporting independence pinning their hopes on oil and the hydrocarbon industry as providing a cash bonanza to an independent Scotland. During the first independence referendum, the ‘No’ campaign cleverly framed Scotland’s hydrocarbon wealth as a risky and volatile liability to pin an entire economy on, but ironically it is now the potential English market that is possibly the more volatile and uncertain market and our exit from Europe that poses a greater possible risk to a future Scottish economy. 

It was argued by some within the left that our social solidarity with both England and our safe membership of Europe should lead the Scots to vote for union, but the deal then was that a vote for union within the United Kingdom would result in safe membership with Europe. That promise is now shattered on the rocks. Should a vote for social solidarity not go with the larger potential partner rather than the smaller partner where national values might be seen to be diverging ever more sharply on issues such as immigration and broader social policy?  

Scotland may well be ‘better together’ – but perhaps instead with Europe?

For polling on the question of Scotland and independence post the European Union referendum see What Scotland Thinks.